Abstract
This study investigated the impact of disaggregated agricultural products exports;
specifically palm kernel cake, cashew nuts, and tobacco on economic growth in
Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. The analysis employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) framework using annual time series data obtained from the World Bank.
Macroeconomic control variables including trade openness, real interest rate, foreign
direct investment, and real effective exchange rate were incorporated to account for
broader growth determinants. The ARDLbounds test confirmed the existence of a longrun cointegrating relationship among the variables, while the error correction
mechanism showed a rapid speed of adjustment toward equilibrium. The empirical
results revealed that palm kernel cake and cashew nut exports did not exert a
statistically significant effect on economic growth in either the short or long run. In
contrast, tobacco exports exhibited a significant negative impact on GDP, possibly
reflecting regulatory pressures, declining international demand, and limited domestic
value addition. Among the control variables, trade openness and real interest rate were
found to have significant positive effects on economic growth. The study concluded that
not all agricultural exports contributed positively to Nigeria's economic performance.
Hence, targeted investment in agro-processing and improved export logistics are
recommended.