DISAGGREGATED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of disaggregated agricultural products exports; specifically palm kernel cake, cashew nuts, and tobacco on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. The analysis employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework using annual time series data obtained from the World Bank. Macroeconomic control variables including trade openness, real interest rate, foreign direct investment, and real effective exchange rate were incorporated to account for broader growth determinants. The ARDL bounds test confirmed the existence of a longrun cointegrating relationship among the variables, while the error correction mechanism showed a rapid speed of adjustment toward equilibrium. The empirical results revealed that palm kernel cake and cashew nut exports did not exert a statistically significant effect on economic growth in either the short or long run. In
contrast, tobacco exports exhibited a significant negative impact on GDP, possibly reflecting regulatory pressures, declining international demand, and limited domestic value addition. Among the control variables, trade openness and real interest rate were
found to have significant positive effects on economic growth. The study concluded that not all agricultural exports contributed positively to Nigeria's economic performance. Hence, targeted investment in agro-processing and improved export logistics are
recommended.